Climate Diagnostics Dashboard

Projected Arctic warming exceeds the global rate by a factor of 2.1 to 2.4 annually, peaking in winter due to sea-ice feedbacks, while contrasting with a distinct cooling hole in the North Atlantic.

Mid-century projections indicate a robust intensification of hydrological contrasts, characterized by sensible-heat-dominated drying in the subtropics and latent-heat-driven wetting in the Sahel and high-latitude cryosphere.

Projected warming is amplified by positive shortwave cloud feedbacks over subtropical oceans and drying rainforests, while high latitudes exhibit a tug-of-war between heat-trapping longwave effects and increased cloud reflectivity.

Projected freshwater fluxes reveal a thermodynamically intensified hydrological cycle with distinct 'warming hole' signatures in the North Atlantic and severe, structurally consistent drying over the Amazon and Mediterranean.

Future ocean heat storage is concentrated in the Southern Ocean and Western Boundary Current extensions, contrasted by a robust North Atlantic 'warming hole' indicative of AMOC weakening.

While models agree on a transition toward a thinner, seasonal Arctic ice pack driven by thermodynamic forcing, they diverge sharply in the Southern Ocean, where IFS-NEMO projects widespread retreat and IFS-FESOM predicts anomalous Weddell Sea expansion.

High-resolution projections exhibit pronounced seasonal seasonality, contrasting winter-dominant Arctic amplification with intense summer continental warming, accompanied by a dynamic reorganization of tropical rainfall belts and monsoon intensification.

Projected mid-century warming is punctuated by an AMOC-induced North Atlantic cooling hole (-1.5 K) and intense heating hotspots (>2 K) in Western Boundary Current extensions and Arctic marginal seas.

While models demonstrate strong consensus on widespread surface darkening across the Northern Hemisphere due to snow and ice retreat, they diverge significantly in the Weddell Sea, where IFS-FESOM predicts a localized albedo increase contrary to the global warming signal.

Projected mid-century surface warming is radiatively driven by widespread longwave enhancement, but spatially structured by intense turbulent heat loss in retreating sea-ice zones and divergent cloud-radiative feedbacks over tropical continents.

Under SSP3-7.0, coupled IFS configurations exhibit a global water vapor scaling of 4.1–4.5%/K, deviating from the theoretical 7%/K Clausius-Clapeyron rate due to marked relative humidity reductions in continental and high-warming regimes.

Mid-century projections indicate widespread continental drying and increased atmospheric thirst over the Amazon and Mediterranean, contrasted by moisture intensification over African and Asian monsoon regions.

Shared atmospheric physics drives highly robust, topography-locked warming signals and Arctic amplification, while distinct ocean model formulations introduce significant divergence in tropical precipitation patterns and open-ocean temperature response.

While IFS-FESOM and IFS-NEMO maintain a nearly identical land-ocean warming ratio (~1.55), the FESOM configuration yields significantly higher absolute warming and distinct Southern Ocean cooling anomalies compared to NEMO.

Replacing the structured NEMO ocean with the unstructured FESOM grid significantly alters regional climate sensitivity, mitigating the North Atlantic warming hole and shifting the Pacific ITCZ southward, which amplifies European warming and intensifies Amazonian drying.

Mid-century projections indicate a robust global increase in precipitation concentration, specifically intensifying seasonality within the Sahelian and Asian monsoon systems and narrowing the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Future projections reveal a dichotomy in seasonal temperature changes, characterized by winter-dominant warming over polar oceans due to sea-ice loss and summer-dominant warming over mid-latitude continents driven by surface drying.

Models project a robust, thermodynamically driven retreat of the snow-to-rain transition zone by 2040–2049, with snowfall fraction decreases exceeding 20% in maritime sub-polar regions and high-altitude mountain ranges.

While models agree on critical wet-bulb temperature increases exceeding 2.5°C over Northern Hemisphere continents, IFS-NEMO projects a significant North Atlantic cooling signal absent in IFS-FESOM, indicating divergent ocean circulation responses.

IFS-FESOM projects a systematically higher climate sensitivity than IFS-NEMO, characterized by intensified Arctic Amplification (+3.7 K vs. +2.5 K) and greater atmospheric moistening, despite strong agreement on extratropical circulation shifts.

While both models project robust warming and hydrological intensification under SSP3-7.0, IFS-FESOM is systematically warmer and wetter than IFS-NEMO, which conversely maintains a higher rate of planetary energy accumulation.

IFS-FESOM consistently projects higher climate sensitivity than IFS-NEMO, characterized by stronger Arctic Amplification (+3.6 K vs +2.6 K) and intensified monsoon hydrological cycles, despite diverging cloud feedback mechanisms in the Southern Hemisphere.

IFS-NEMO projects a hydrological sensitivity (0.086 mm/day/K) more than double that of IFS-FESOM (0.040 mm/day/K), driven by a specific regime of high-warming but precipitation-limited grid cells in the FESOM configuration.